Facebook shares are vastly over priced. But it will change of course. And once the smarter sheep realize this, they will sell their stock. Then the other sheep will follow, because that’s what sheep do.
Imagine a blimp circling overhead, being held up by helium. Someone shoots a bullet through it and the helium starts to leak out. But it’s a small hole, and the blimp is big, and they have some emergency compressed helium they can use to keep it inflated. So it is not really a problem for now. But more people start taking shots at it and soon it has lots of holes. It is then obvious that it is impossible for it to stay in the air, and that it must come down. That is where facebook share prices are now.
The crying from the facebook sheep will become so loud that other sheep holding other inflated stocks will begin to sell their stocks too, and a crash will ensue. Yes, facebook might be the big news event, which sets off the big crash.
November17, 2013. "The Google Bomb". The fuse on the google bomb is burning, but no one notices it burning. When the bomb explodes, google, the evil cousin of facebook, will crash big time, and along with facebook, it will drag the market down as well.
The company has the motto, "Do no evil." Doing evil is defined as doing something that is morally wrong. Google does just that. And they lie and make up lame excuses for it.
A case in point: Google has collected WiFi data on millions of emails and other personal data, while driving around their Steet View vehicles. After getting caught at it they admitted it, and said it was a "mistake" caused by an engineer's coding error, THREE YEARS PRIOR. Is that a lame excuse or what? They collected billions of bits of data (and put it somewhere)
and didn't notice they were doing it for 3 years?
Google is overcharging for advertising. They are getting away with, because most of their big advertisers do not realize they are being overcharged. Consider a car company. They may pay for google advertising, but they are also paying for TV commercials, magazine ads, and billboard ads. A customer walks in and buys a car. They ask if the customer saw their online ads. The customer may say yes, but not mention that they came in mostly because of a TV commercial or whatever. I have been doing online marketing since 1999, using search engines and pay per click, including google adwords. I can say without a doubt that for my product, they charge about 10 times over what I need to break even, and I am not alone. The car companies will eventually discover they are paying way too much and will stop advertising with google, or demand much lower rates. How much profit will google make when their ad revenue drops by 90%? Zero or close to it. What will their stock be worth?
In 2012 my views for one of my sites gradually worked up to around 100 per day. Then, suddenly over 48 hours my views went down to about 10 per day. The graph shows my views were increasing before google ruined my ranking.
"Coincidentally", a few days later I got a card in the mail from google, promoting their pay per click ads. They later won a case in court, saying they did not intentionally make anyone's ranking drop. Just because they were acquitted, doesn't mean they were
innocent. The graph above says they were lying.
I had some google adsense ads that were making money, and my google adsense account was suddenly closed. They offer no appeal system for this, and no way to contact them. Overall, they are arrogant, and showing incompetence, and their products
are overpriced. This is not a recipe for prolonged success. You can watch for signs of advertisers revolting in the next couple of
quarters, with their revenues suddenly down. Slow selling, and then panic selling will ensue.
Some businesses will thrive......
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January 8, 2012. There is a Great Depresson coming and it wil last a minimum of 20
years. Briefly, here's why:
During Japan's "Lost Decade" assets were vastly overpriced, and the banks did not
value them at market price. The US criticized them at the time. Since about 2008 in the
US, the assets on the books of the banks are still not valued at market price. Without
details, this means the US is in the same position as the Japanese, at the start of their
"lost decade". The US is in for a similar type of no growth and the start of it will be
recognized soon. During Japan's "lost decade", the rest of the world was quite
healthy economically, buying goods from Japan, yet Japan still suffered. As the US
enters the same type of situation, the rest of the world is very unhealthy economically.
The US will not have the rest of the world to help, as Japan did, and so it will suffer a lot
more, and for a lot longer. It can easily be 30 years. Unfortunately, it cannot be stopped.
Unemployment will skyrocket in the next few years, with great civic unrest, riots, and
January 30, 2013, 4:36 AM. I just work up. Yesterday I read about an IPO coming up
for facebook, and it might be for 100 billion. I woke up with a price of 1 billion
or less for facebook in my mind. Many many people are going to get burned!!
That's all I have right now. Someone who knows more about it than me can do
the math and come up with a price per share value in due course. I'm going
back to bed now. Don't buy facebook.
February 1st, 9 PM. Note, when I get my psychic flashes, dates are not always
included, so some explanation is needed here. The number crunchers will of
course come up with a figure much higher than 1 billion divided into X number
of shares. And the shares will trade reflecting this, but when the big crash
comes, the shares will reflect a value of 1 billion or less. It must be always
remembered that information is constantly becoming lower and lower priced on
the internet. Remember when a good set of encylopedia cost several thousand
dollars, and now we have wikipedia for free. Facebook has lots of information
on people that they can sell, but so do others, and others will sell it for less and
less until it becomes extremely cheap.
That's it folks, what I think the true value of facebook is, long term, only about 1
I really wish I had a patron or sponsor so I could spend more time on this.